Vladimir Putin’s plan to profit from the Israel-Hamas war

The past 48 hours have seen a burst of diplomacy by Russia regarding the Middle East crisis. On October 16th Vladimir Putin spoke to Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, and the leaders of Egypt, Iran, Syria and the Palestinian Authority. Mr Putin expressed his condolences for the murdered Israelis, but failed to denounce Hamas’s attacks. Russia’s autocrat also called for a ceasefire, and blamed the crisis on America.

The calls confirm two things: Russia’s estrangement from Israel, and that the Kremlin sees the Israel-Hamas war as an opportunity to undermine and distract the West. This effort will be applauded by China: indeed Mr Putin has just arrived in Beijing to attend the Belt and Road summit, hosted by Xi Jinping. Meanwhile Joe Biden will tomorrow fly to Israel to meet Mr Netanyahu, seeking to shape Israel’s military response, get a flow of aid to Gaza and deter Iran and its proxies. The rival jet-setting travel schedules illustrate a world that is divided over Ukraine, the Middle East and more.

Mr Netanyahu used to call Vladimir Putin his “dear friend”. He has visited Russia a dozen times in recent years. So he must have been surprised that it took Russia’s president nine days after Hamas’s deadly rampage in southern Israel to pick up the phone. Russia has had scarcely a word of censure for the militants, despite reports that among so many others they killed 16 of its nationals, and that eight more may be missing.

Mr Netanyahu had been courting Mr Putin because of Russia’s role in Syria, Israel’s most unstable immediate neighbour. Russia has been propping up the regime of Bashar al-Assad, Syria’s murderous dictator, through indiscriminate bombing of various rebel groups. Mr Netanyahu wanted to be sure that Israel would be free to pursue its own interests in Syria, including periodic air strikes, without Russian hindrance. Some argue that Mr Netanyahu, the dominant politician in Israel for the past two decades, also has an affinity for strongmen like Mr Putin. He was hesitant to criticise Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, and muted when he did so. Nor did he supply Ukraine with weapons, despite Ukrainian requests.

There is plenty of potential affinity between Russia and Israel: 15% of Israelis speak Russian, owing to their origins in the former Soviet Union. Mr Putin seems to admire Israel as a muscular regional power not afraid to throw its weight around and welcomed Mr Netanyahu’s apparent indifference to Russia’s democratic failings.

But for all the shows of warmth, Russian support for Palestinian nationalism has not wavered since the Soviet era, when Russia helped train Palestinian fighters and armed the Arab countries that attacked Israel in 1973. Russia has long been closer to the likes of Syria than it has to Israel. And Mr Putin’s soft spot for Israel has not stopped him cosying up to Iran, the Middle East’s most fervently anti-Israeli regime.

There is no suggestion that Russia gave any direct help to Hamas in either the planning or execution of its assault in southern Israel. But Russia has maintained friendly relations with the Iranian-backed organisation since it came to power in Gaza, believing that it might one day come in useful. Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, warmly welcomed a member of Hamas’s leadership, Khaled Meshaal, to Moscow in 2007. When Israeli forces entered Gaza in 2014 in a seven-week operation, they found themselves on the receiving end of a large number of Russian anti-tank missiles, supplied by Iran.

Russia’s ever warmer relationship with Iran has already been creating tensions with Israel and might have caused a falling-out even without the atrocity of October 7th. Last year, as Russia ran low on missiles with which to pulverise Ukraine, it turned to Iran to provide it with hundreds of Shahed self-detonating drones to attack infrastructure and population centres. It is now making a version of its own with assistance from Iran. In return, it is thought that Russia will furnish Iran with attack helicopters and air-defence systems. Those weapons, in turn, would increase Iran’s capabilities should it ever fight a war with Israel.

Mr Putin may not want that, but he probably would not mind if Israel’s war against Hamas escalates and widens to other parts of the Arab world. Hamas has already helped take the West’s focus off the war in Ukraine. Joe Biden, America’s president, is trying to secure Congress’s approval for further help for Ukraine by tying it to an emergency aid package for Israel. But even if that succeeds, an expanded conflagration in the Middle East is bound to reduce the flow of munitions to Ukraine, much to Russia’s advantage.

By sending two aircraft-carriers to the region, plus its top diplomat, Antony Blinken, America has shown how eager it is to prevent the conflict from broadening. It is hoping to deter Hizbullah, another Iranian proxy, which controls southern Lebanon and has an arsenal of up to 150,000 rockets and missiles pointed at Israel.

A wider war would probably bring two benefits to both Russia and Iran. The first would be a spike in oil and gas prices that would help both ailing economies and give Mr Putin extra money to fund his war in Ukraine. The second would be to disrupt America’s plans for the Middle East. Already, Hamas has served Iranian and Russian interests by deferring indefinitely the mooted peace deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia that America has spent much time and effort attempting to bring about.

It is for very much the same reasons that China has also declined to offer Israel comfort by condemning Hamas. China has so far merely expressed concern “over the current escalation of tensions and violence between Palestine and Israel”. According to a report in the Wall Street Journal, by juxtaposing the preparations of heavily armed Israeli forces soon to enter Gaza with pictures of American warships apparently steaming towards the conflict zone, Chinese news outlets give the impression that the operation is Washington-led.

Like Russia, China will be happy to see America bogged down in the region and its authority challenged. China helped to broker a rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia earlier this year partly in the hope of undermining the American-led world order. It may not have had any inkling of Hamas’s plans, but it is unlikely to be regretting the turmoil they have caused.■