Australians are no longer united on Aboriginal rights

AUSTRALIA’S PRIME MINISTER, Anthony Albanese, said it would be a chance to unify the country. The reality has been rather different. The “Voice to Parliament” referendum on October 14th will ask Australians whether they want to change their constitution and enshrine an indigenous advisory body within it. At first, a plurality supported the idea; now polls indicate the compulsory vote will end in a landslide defeat. One of the largest such polls, conducted by Focaldata, a London-based polling group, suggests that 61% of Australians will vote against the government’s proposed amendments (see chart). What went wrong?

Focaldata surveyed the voting intentions of 4,500 Australians, then modelled their votes to see how each constituency is expected to swing. It suggests that only 22 of Australia’s 151 electoral districts will say “Yes” to the Voice. All of those are left-leaning inner-city seats, whereas the strongest opposition is in rural Australia (most vehemently, Queensland). Aussies are divided along age lines, too. A majority of those under 34 will vote Yes, compared with only a fifth of over-65s.

Such biases have triggered comparisons to Britain’s referendum on leaving the European Union in 2016. Pundits say that Australia is split along the same cultural lines as the Leave and Remain vote (in which younger, more educated voters elected to remain part of the EU). In fact the data suggest those arguments are overstated: it is not only older conservatives who are unsure about the Voice. Younger age groups than Britain’s Remainers oppose it; over 40% of 25- to 34-year-olds will vote No, according to the data. Fully 45% of Australians who voted for Mr Albanese’s Labor Party in last year’s federal election look set to vote No. Centrists determine the outcome of elections under Australia’s system of compulsory voting and two-thirds of them are against the idea, according to Focaldata. Only the most left-leaning voters appear to support the constitutional amendment.

The polling hints as to why. Mr Albanese billed the Voice as a way to help improve the grim living conditions of many Aboriginal people by giving them more say over policymaking (though politicians would not be bound to follow the advisory body’s advice). Constitutional recognition would also help to heal the wounds created by colonisation which still plague Australia, the idea goes. But these lofty arguments have not resonated. And a loud and organised No campaign, led by members of the opposition, has flipped early supporters. No-voters say they oppose creating a race-based body within the constitution on the grounds that “we are one country”. Many view the referendum as an unnecessary indulgence during a cost-of-living crisis. No referendum down under has ever passed without bipartisan support. This one, intended to soften racial divides, is likely to fail because Aussies think the vote will aggravate them instead. ■

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